24 MEPs I’m watching this election

HELLO. There are 62 days until June 6. Welcome to the ELEVENTH edition of this newsletter. If you have been with me since the get-go, then thank you. If you’re just joining us now, fear not. We have a long way to go. EIGHT more newsletters until the election. There’s all to play for! 
THIS WEEK I am serving up my own list of 24 current MEPs who I’ll be keeping a watchful eye on in the next two months, not because they are the two dozen best MEPs, or even those who achieved the most in the last mandate, but because I consider these MEPs more than any others will shape the coming campaign. The 2024 election year will be fashioned in their image.  So, in no particular order … 
Roberta Metsola
Who: Center-right Parliament president from Malta.
Why she’ll matter: Ambassador of the election, touring Europe to “get out the vote” among youngsters, and a shoo-in for a second 2.5-year term. 
Why she won’t: Her neutral parliamentary role blunts her capacity for unashamed politicking and there’s a limit to the amount one person can do to boost the EU’s famously low electoral turnout, which only just hit the 50 percent mark last time. Will need to spend a lot of time campaigning in Malta in May. 
Henna Virkkunen
Who: Finnish MEP from the European People’s Party and former minister who’s been big on industrial files — and who loves horses, and ultramarathons, and once ran 100 kilometers to celebrate her birthday. 
Why she’ll matter: Popular in her party, she’s strongly tipped to be Finland’s next European commissioner. 
Why she won’t: Finnish PM Petteri Orpo might pick someone else! 
Maximilan Krah
Who: Head of the list for the far-right Alternative for Germany.
Why he’ll matter: Self-declared dangerous politician who will seek to influence policy on migration and climate as head of a huge group of AfD MEPs, and whose philosophy of “multi-polarism” means, in a nutshell, cozying up to Russia and China. He’s also been mentioned in the Russia-gate scandal that’s hit the Parliament and which is embroiling the number two on the AfD list. Krah denies any wrongdoing.
Why he won’t: The pro-EU majority will block him, and relations are already rocky with other German far-right MEPs, and the French Rassemblement.
Katarina Barley 
Who: VP of the Parliament leading German SPD’s list
Why she’ll matter: As a former justice minister who was in government with von der Leyen, she will likely be central to the pressure the S&D will put on the Commission chief when they press for concessions before a crunch vote later this year.
Why she won’t: S&D will also be dominated by Spanish and Italian MEPs in the next mandate and SPD is a fading force in Germany under the unpopular Olaf Scholz. 
Terry Reintke
Who: Lead candidate for German Greens and a co-leader of their EU campaign.
Why she’ll matter: Part of a younger generation stepping up as veterans retire, she’ll lead efforts to keep the Green Deal alive, and her “just transition” emphasis on climate policy will lend her gravitas as the political focus turns to implementing it.
Why she won’t: The Greens will lose seats and become a more marginal force in the next Parliament.
Tamas Deutsch
Who: Leads list for Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz after Judit Varga spectacularly pulled out in a paedophile-pardoning scandal.
Why he’ll matter: Orbán will win the EU election at home, returning a sizable chunk of at least 10 MEPs who will rail against the EU from inside its hemicycle. 
Why he won’t: Orbán could still fail to join the Euroskeptic ECR group, so Deutsch and co. could remain out in the barren wastelands of non-attached nomad MEPs for years.
Jordan Bardella
Who: Lead candidate for Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in France, talked up as a potential prime minister come 2027.
Why he’ll matter: Armed with a pretty face and a pretty gigantic TikTok presence, he’s charming the teens online.
Why he won’t: He makes barely any impact at the European Parliament and as part of the Identity and Democracy group, he likely still won’t after the election. See the mocking music video put out by the Socialists’ Emmanuel Foulon recently.
Manfred Weber
Who: Bearded Bavarian Parliament powerbroker who is the CSU’s head of list and all-round EPP chief.
Why he’ll matter: Painted as a nature-destroying vandal by his rivals, he’ll play a key role in shaping climate and defense policies as head of the largest group, which will be able to make fleeting coalitions to the left and the right. 
Why he won’t: If von der Leyen remains Commission president, she’ll continue to have the upper hand at the EPP.
Eva Kaili
Who: Greek ex-VP of Parliament charged in Qatargate corruption scandal.
Why she’ll matter: Though she continues to argue that she was the innocent victim of nefarious attempts to damage the Parliament which had nothing to do with her, far-right populists are likely to seize on Qatargate — and Kaili’s role in it — as proof of Brussels’ iniquity.
Why she won’t: Kaili is unlikely to stand again as an MEP and her one-woman crusade against the Belgian justice system will likely fade from the spotlight, despite her best efforts.
Andrzej Halicki
Who: Civic Platform MEP and foreign policy guy.
Why he’ll matter: Seen as one of Donald Tusk’s closest allies in Brussels, he’ll be strengthened by having his party back in government and make his mark on the Parliament’s Russia policy, in an assembly that will have more pro-Putin lawmakers. 
Why he won’t: He’s better known in Poland for his love of Great Danes and penchant for expensive haircuts than for shrewd political strategy.
Raphaël Glucksmann
Who: Suave French MEP and media darling who formed his own party called Place Publique, and leads the Socialists’ list.
Why he’ll matter: Credited with somewhat reviving the almost-extinct French center-left. In Parliament, foreign interference — his pet topic — will become an ever more existential issue.
Why he won’t: The French Socialists are a marginal force in the European Parliament, on the left wing of the S&D group. Valérie Hayer (see below) even recently suggested Glucksmann join Renew to have more influence.
Cristian Terheș
Who: Romanian MEP and vaccine-skeptic priest who carries a selfie stick everywhere he goes in the Parliament so he can broadcast on Facebook.
Why he’ll matter: Terheș will head the list of an insurgent populist party in Romania called AUR, which is trying to join the ECR group and is polling highest in Romania, where the center-left and center-right have teamed up to combat them.
Why he won’t: AUR isn’t guaranteed entry to ECR and could be shunned.
Iratxe García
Who: Spanish MEP who leads the S&D group.
Why she’ll matter: She will need to revive the flagging and scandal-hit Socialists who recently lost power in Portugal, but if she stays as group leader she will make the next Commission slightly more Socialist-friendly than it would otherwise be — in exchange for her MEPs’ support for von der Leyen.
Why she won’t: She has not told POLITICO if she is running again yet — though to be fair neither have most Spanish MEPs as their lists are not yet out. The Italian Democrats could claim the leadership of the group if their numbers swell. 
Siegfried Mureșan
Who: Considered an important power broker inside the EPP’s inner circles in Brussels, this always-on-message MEP is less well known in his native Romania.
Why he’ll matter: Romania is a major battleground state this year and the internal dynamics of the EPP will be even more important in shaping the Parliament’s strongest force, and its relations with the Council, which is also stuffed with EPP governments.
Why he won’t: Weber will still call the shots in Parliament.
Gerolf Annemans
Who: Vlaams Belang MEP who chairs the bureau of Identity & Democracy, the pan-European umbrella party for far-right nationalists.
Why he’ll matter: Wields a huge amount of sway over the far-right’s main EU vehicle, the ID party, whose leading members are AfD and the National Rally.
Why he won’t: Covered by cordon sanitaire as part of ID. 
Johan Van Overtveldt
Who: A Flemish nationalist who chairs the budget committee.
Why he’ll matter: With negotiations on the EU’s next 7-year budget on the horizon, JVO could play a key role, and rumor has it the NVA is looking to join the EPP, after expressing worries about the prospect of Orbán joining their ECR group.
Why he won’t: Van Overtveldt’s group is still dominated by Polish nationalists, who are covered by the Parliament’s unofficial cordon sanitaire.
Nicola Procaccini
Who: Brothers of Italy MEP and co-leader of ECR group.
Why he’ll matter: Considered to be very close to Italian PM Giorgia Meloni, Procaccini will soon be the man of the hour when her party’s ranks swell after the election. 
Why he won’t: Others, like Europe Minister Raffaele Fitto, are considered more likely picks for bigger jobs, such as commissioner — and for now the ECR is an Italian-Polish joint venture. 
Anders Vistisen 
Who: Danish People’s Party MEP who is unofficially the face of the far-right ID election campaign.
Why he’ll matter: Projecting a non-threatening image, you’ll see him in pan-European debates representing the far-right in perfect English, making migration and slamming the Green Deal major pillars of his pitch.
Why he won’t: His own party will struggle in the election and some are unlikely to want to platform him. 
Anna Donáth 
Who: Young Hungarian MEP who is the lead candidate for liberal opposition party Momentum.
Why she’ll matter: One of the most prominent Orbán opposers in the Parliament as Hungary prepares to hold its six-month EU presidency from July.
Why she won’t: All anti-Orbán eyes are on Péter Magyar now, and he could disrupt the opposition, stealing votes from Momentum and even the Social Democrat-Green alliance. 
Eva Maydell 
Who: Bulgarian MEP — yet to officially announce she is running but we assume she is.
Why she’ll matter: A woman from the east who’s making an impact on one of the most-talked-about files — artificial intelligence — with no limit to her ambitions. She’s tipped to be Bulgaria’s next commissioner.  
Why she won’t: She’s flown on the coattails of the GERB party to be where she is, and GERB is floundering back in Sofia. 
Marcel de Graaff
Who: Far-right Dutch MEP and conspiracist. 
Why he’ll matter: De Graaff is becoming embroiled in a massive scandal dubbed Russia-gate, having been one of the MEPs interviewed by the Voice of Europe outlet which was sanctioned as being a Kremlin propaganda arm. He has already raised eyebrows in Parliament with his fake news speeches about Russia’s war in Ukraine. 
Why he won’t: No one really takes him seriously in the European Parliament. 
Clare Daly
Who: Irish MEP invariably seen in the company of fellow Irish MEP Mick Wallace.
Why she’ll matter: With a vast reach on social media platforms like TikTok — where she enjoys slamming the likes of von der Leyen and vehemently attacks Israel’s killing of civilians in Gaza — she is one of the few MEPs whose speeches in the hemicycle are actually widely heard outside the EU bubble. 
Why she won’t: The independent MEP is very isolated politically in the Parliament, where MEPs shun her pro-China, pro-Russia rhetoric, and she struggles to find allies even within her own Left group in Parliament. 
Valérie Hayer
Who: French MEP — and former MEP assistant — who shot to prominence when she took over the leadership of the Renew Europe group in Parliament, after her predecessor became foreign affairs minister.
Why she’ll matter: French President Emmanuel Macron is betting big on her to stare down Le Pen’s brigade. 
Why she won’t: If things go really badly for them, Renew could be relegated to the fifth largest group in Parliament. 
Sophie in ‘t Veld  
Who: Extremely experienced Dutch MEP.
Why she’ll matter: One of the few MEPs who really wants the institution to be a more effective power broker — and who has clear ideas on how to achieve it.
Why she won’t: Having fallen out with her D66 party she made a mess of moving to Dutch-speaking Volt in Belgium, which has been struggling to even register as an eligible party. It makes it look unlikely she’ll be reelected. 
SUN, SEA AND INDIFFERENCE. On the Croisette promenade in Cannes, Europe is something almost no one wants to talk about.
“It’s simple: I only care about women, fishing and les boules,” said one elderly man, referring to pétanque, as he watched the sunset with two ladies and their little dogs, all wearing fancy clothes. 
While he was not even aware of the upcoming European election, the elderly Frenchman, who asked not to be identified, said if he were going to vote, he would back the far-right National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen.
This sprawling southeast corner of France, the Côte d’Azur or French Riviera has long been a stronghold of the political right, thanks in part to an aging demographic and built on nationalist ideology stemming from the 1960s return of French settlers from Algeria.
Home to some 1 million people, the region has in recent years become even more receptive to right-wing ideas, with representatives of the far right having success in local elections.
Further down the Croisette, an old chess player with a French flag pin on his jacket did not want to give his name but was more than happy to speak for 15 minutes about vaccines, Joe Biden, and journalists who are not ready to hear the truth or do their job properly. He said that even Le Pen was too centrist for him — he much preferred her former ally and “true patriot” Florian Philippot, who launched an anti-EU movement called The Patriots after ditching the National Rally.
“The [National Rally] no longer frightens voters here because it has become more respectable at local level, in the national assembly and, above all, [President Emmanuel] Macron is very strongly rejected,” said the conservative mayor of Antibes Jean Leonetti.
Changing attitudes: As attitudes have hardened here, rven Ukrainian refugees are not always welcome. 
Some families have moved here with large SUVs, which are the subject of suspicious comments from local residents.
“Macron is talking about sending troops to Ukraine and they’re here with their big cars,” said one restaurant owner from Antibes, who asked POLITICO not to identify him or his establishment, fearing backlash in response to his anti-immigrant sentiments.  
On the other hand, the owner conceded, one group that is always welcome is wealthy tourists. 
“Whether they are Russians, Arabs, Africans, ordinary tourists or dictators, a client is a client,” the restaurant owner said. Asked about who he would vote for in June, the owner responded with a single name: Marine Le Pen.
This story is part of the series ‘The road to the EU election 2024’, in which POLITICO’s reporters are speaking to voters to find out what will convince them to head to the ballot box (or not) in the European election in June. Read the full piece here.
by Elisa Braun
In French national polls, National Rally (the party of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella) has a clear lead over Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance. But at EU level, the Parliament groups they sit with — the far-right Identity and Democracy and liberal Renew, respectively — are polling neck-and-neck.
National Rally and Renaissance are also on track to become the biggest national delegations in ID and Renew after June’s election.
Except … while Macron is looking to forge a fresh liberal alliance at EU level, National Rally is targeting “ad hoc majorities” to block specific files.
POLITICO Pro Intelligence data on MEPs’ voting patterns in the current Parliament term shows why: Macron’s lead candidate Valérie Hayer’s votes matched those of her French Renew compatriots an average of 97 percent of the time — but she also overlapped with lawmakers of many other countries in Renew about 90 percent of the time.
Bardella, meanwhile, sees eye to eye with fellow French ID members 98 percent of the time, but his affinity with other countries’ ID lawmakers plunged to just over 60 percent.
Current Renew and ID members by country. Colors indicate the average “affinity” between the countries’ lawmakers and the MEPs leading the French lists; Valérie Hayer and Jordan Bardella.
Nowhere in the EU have MEPs created more buzz on TikTok than in France, according to POLITICO’s analysis. And if the election were held on the app, the race would already be run.
Bardella showed up on the app early and he’s amassed a following that is unparalleled in the EU Parliament. Between French MEPs, Bardella is responsible for the bulk of likes; The Left’s Leïla Chaibi is a distant second. Centrist MEPs’ TikTok popularity fades in comparison.
URSULA VON-DELAYING FINALLY LAUNCHES CAMPAIGN: Since launching a month ago, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has not done a single campaign event and her special campaign X account has not tweeted once since she was nominated as lead candidate — some would say fake Spitzenkandidat — on March 7. Meanwhile, another member of the College of Commissioners, Nicolas Schmit has been touring Europe, leading the Socialists’ ticket. 
This morning the EPP announced that she will do her first campaign event by taking part in the Greek New Democracy party’s congress on Sunday. 
Her campaign team starting — weirdly — not until Monday, will be: Campaign manager Bjoern Seibert and chief spokesperson Alexander Winterstein. 
The Socialists, meanwhile, are heading to Bucharest this weekend for a big campaign conference. For more on why Romania is a key battleground in this election read my colleague Jakob here.
Also happening this weekend: Pan-European party Volt launches its campaign in Brussels on Saturday. Details. Best-known candidates: Damian Boeselager and Sophie in’t Veld. 
New on the Finnish left: Li Andersson, 36, will run for the European Parliament in Finland. A former education minister in the coalition government led by Sanna Marin, she outdid Finland’s social democrat Commissioner Jutta Urpilainen in the recent presidential election and is seen as good news for the Left group in the Parliament. Yle had more last month.
Socialist sounds: The Party of European Socialists has a “progressive playlist” of music for their campaign, featuring Manu Chao, U2 and a Ukrainian rendition of left-wing anthem Bella Ciao. Listen here. Our own weekly playlist is further down this email.
What’s German for smorgasbord? Euronews’ Jack Schickler wrote about the diverse list of 33 parties fighting the election in Germany: “There’s single-issue parties for rationalists, families, humanists, vegetarians, pirates, biomedical rejuvenation research (me neither), and a remarkable three (3) for animal rights.” See all parties here.
Promote Ukraine founder runs for EP: Ukrainian-Belgian Marta Barandiy, who founded the Brussels-based Ukrainian civil society NGO Promote Ukraine, is running for the European Parliament for a small Flemish party called Voor U. “It’s a new party and it’s gained a lot of support from citizens,” she told me, saying optimistically that she sees her chances of getting elected as 50/50. Her campaign van could be spotted on Rue de la Loi on Thursday. 
ORBÁN DOES SOME SPRING CLEANING: Hungary’s illiberal leader Viktor Orbán chucked out 5 of his 12 MEPs, who did not make it onto the final Fidesz party list (a joint list with EPP party KDNP) available here.
In the Or-bin: MEPs Andor Deli, Lívia Jároka, László Trócsányi, PLUS heavyweight Balázs Hidvéghi and Andrea Bocskor, both of whom we predicted wouldn’t make it last week. Do bigger things lie in wait for Hidvéghi? 
Notable candidates: Olympic and paralympic champion fencer Pál Szekeres is in a safe seat; and online influencer and provocateur András László could well squeeze in.
I was wrong in last week’s newsletter about Edina Tóth: she is on the list, but in a frankly unwinnable position of 19 unless Orbán destroys all that’s left of the democratic opposition (which is unlikely). 
OH JEREMY CORBYN: Former U.K. Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn attended a campaign event by the European Left and the Workers’ Party of Belgium in Brussels last night, warning that creating a European defense force would be tantamount to returning to the colonial era of the 19th century and saying that people working in the arms industry should be tempted to switch jobs to make “socially useful and necessary products” instead.  
Quoted: “When you see the European Union promoting European-wide arms manufacturers. … I find that very, very frightening. Let’s make sure … that in the elections for the European Parliament these issues are actually center stage because they have a real effect on the social spending of people all over this Continent,” Corbyn said.
Mea culpa: Last week I mistakenly said that Più Europa was the former political home of Qatargate suspect Pier Antonio Panzeri. His party was first the Democratic Party and later Article One. Thanks to all the readers who wrote in to correct me.
POLITICO’s Leyla Aksu and Paul Dallison have made another playlist of songs to get you in the mood for the election. This week’s has some top tunes from France. Here it is. Enjoy.
MEP trivia:  Name a country where another election will take place at the same time as the European Parliament election this June? Answers via email please.
Last week I asked you to name some former prime ministers who are running for seats in the European Parliament. 
Congratulations to Belgian legal officer Thomas Yaw Voets for correctly suggesting Elio di Rupo and Sophie Wilmès, who are running for the French-speaking socialists and liberals, respectively. Francesca Fina from Teneo also contributed Matteo Renzi who’s running on a liberal platform in Italy. Maria Isabel dos Santos Simões from the European Commission suggested Latvia’s Valdis Dombrovskis. I love hearing from readers, don’t hesitate to get in touch. 
Other former prime ministers you could have had:  Juri Ratas in Estonia… Saulius Skvernelis in Lithuania … Krišjānis Kariņš in Latvia … Mihai Tudose and Dacian Cioloș in Romania.
Casual reminder: We’re also on WhatsApp! Follow our account here to stay up to date on the latest European election news in between Playbook editions.
Last word: “This is the moment in which the left must unite,” said Walter Baier, lead candidate for the European Left, at a campaign event last night.
Current election excitement level: Von-delighted to get started.
THANKS TO: Hanne Cokelaere, Giulia Poloni, Antoaneta Roussi, Bartosz Brzeziński, Louise Guillot and Paul Dallison.
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